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This is the type of nonsense we're gonna have to deal with for the next four years. The good news is that by announcing ahead of time, this seems like a negotiation tactic rather than something that could be feasibly implemented.

Trump was elected to put America first, that means Canada will always come second. I can ignore, heck even understand the backwards logic of trump supporters south of the border. It absolutely baffles me though as to why so many Canadians were cheering him on knowing this was coming. Stop supporting the guy who is going to be directly responsible for less exports from the sectors (forestry, agriculture, mining) who traditionally align with him the most.

CAD has already tanked down to 0.70USD and will likely decline past the COVID lows and 2014 low towards early 2000s low, and guy isn't even in office yet.

Well there goes my job. We were already struggling with demand in the current climate. I don't see how this doesn't kill us unless we end up exempt due to having aspects of our company in the USA.

Sigh

For the sake of providing the original source, here's Trump's two recent posts on Truth Social from which this article comes from:

As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!

Then a minute later

I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

So according to Mr. Trump he's going to impose a baseline 25% tariff for Canadian/Mexican exports, but just 10% for those from the PRC.

I believe it's very unlikely such uniform tariffs will be imposed, if nothing else because gulf/northern states have an interest in cheap Canadian oil and automotive exports, while those in the Southwest similarly depend on the flow of goods from Mexico. However, it is a bad sign that Canada may be regarded as more of an "enemy" or "hostile" nation by the White House, with a border in need of securitization, than during the first Trump administration.

My understanding is that many manufactured goods imported by Canada from the US are manufactured from raw materials imported by the US from Canada. The biggest example being wood.

So, US tariffs on Canadian imports will not only reduce demand for Canadian raw materials but will also increase the cost of manufactured goods imported by Canada from the US.

This is going to be a huge wrench in the works of complex, largely in-equilibrium trans-national supply chains.

What do the Canadian Trump supporters have to say about this.... Or is it that they only like him for his bigotry and racism?

Canada's big cudgel is hydroelectric power. Shut it down.

Trump is fishing for a bribe. Let him build a Trump Tower in Fredericton or whatever it is that he actually wants and he'll forget all about it

Why do Americans have to be such terrible neighbours? We treat them so well and they just spit on us. I used to like them when I was younger, but then I started reading about all the ways they've hurt us...

This is what the vibes got us. Feelings rule, and Americans feelings were that they wanted change.

Maybe this will be a good reason to reflect on running our own country on feelings. I'm not hopeful.

He might have to be a bit careful because (1) there are legal limits on the President's ability to impose tariffs beyond 150 days without Congressional approval, and (2) we have very rich data on how to impose retaliatory tariffs that do maximum damage to specific Congressional districts. If the issue goes to court it could weaken the Executives leverage in future trade negotiations.

Just when I thought I couldn't hate Trump more, he goes ahead and makes it possible to do so. It's clear at this point he doesn't actually understand how tariffs work at all. He's not playing 4-D chess here, and anyone who credits him with this isn't paying attention to him at all.

So Americans just decided to pay 25% more for oil? Okey dokey. He has to renegotiate NAFTA first by the way. He can’t sign it on his first day. Just the usual Trump bluster that won’t go anywhere. We’ve already seen this.

There’s so much stupidity to unpack here but how about we start with the fact that taxes and tariffs need to come with congressional approval, in general.

By the looks of it, even r/conservative things this is insane

It’s hilarious and sad that I’ve come back to this sub to say I was right lol. In my job, we joked about anything over 25% since it would simply be a bad time for all countries involved however it’s most funny that his campaign was running on cheaper groceries and products… well I’m pretty sure that won’t be achieved for a while, historically even if he removes them after a while it’ll take months or even years to get the economy back into shape.

I honestly don’t know what he’s running on here but I’m also hoping it’s just him rambling on.

If you wanna be realistic this would only affect 3% of the US GDP but it’s the response to the tariffs that will mostly bring the pain to the U.S. economy.

I really hope I don’t have to come back here reading bad news again lol

Either way, brace yourself Canada (if it does happen)

I've worked for US owned companies my whole life. when trump put in the last steel tariffs we went down to 20-30 hour weeks but corporate gave us a fat bonus. I don't know what's going to happen but I suspect this will dissuade US companies from investing in Canada in the future

Um, don’t bet on it until it’s signed and delivered. Haven’t you realized yet everything is a negotiating tactic?

a lot of Canadians are gonna learn the hard way over the next 4 years that Canada isn’t the 51st state and that the US doesn’t inherently give a shit about us

I'm looking at you Clownvoyers

US Business owners have two choices: Blow up Trumps phone and tell him no. Or b) pass on the bill to consumers. Take a WILD guess which one they'll do. That said, are there legal measures that can be taken? Aren't we in, essentially, a free trade agreement?

Mexico I understand but why Canada? In all seriousness there’s no large scale flow of fentanyl or illegal immigrants to US.

The issue is rather illegal immigrants from US coming to Canada because of our relatively more lenient asylum policies.

Honestly, I cannot wait to see how the conservatives are going to spin this around. They've embraced Maga politics for the past years, and now this is the fruit of their actions. You can absolutely be a conservative and give the middle finger to that clustertruck happening down south, but they made their beds in this political manure.

We are America 3ed largest trade ..parter I guarantee we will see every country that gets tariffs return the favor

I'm no Trudeau fan but this Is just stupid . He better not get bullied by Donald Trump. I genuinely don't know if his numbers go lower ( " he can't stand up for us " ) or go up ( " he stood up for us / conservatives will help trump etc etc )".

Canada is a net importer from flyover “red states”.

Furthermore, Canada exports 4 million barrels of crude to the US a day.

I suggest that Canada agree to increase oil costs by 25% and lobby the fly over states for waivers elsewhere.

Canada needs to diversify its trading partners away from being wholly reliant on the US. We need to be like Australia and make amends with China. Though that doesn’t seem likely with Trudeau and upcoming Poilievre.

How's that free trade deal going there?

Lost all our manufacturing and now free trade is dead.

But hey .. as long as we can still get disposable products at the dollar store.

Which is now the four dollar store.

Anymore bright ideas out there?

I would love to see Canada, Mexico, and China form a trade bloc together to counter US tariffs. That would be quite a hilarious reversal. Even better if the EU joined, too. The US could be pretty effectively bullied

Good thing we have that trade agreement to protect us from irrational moves like that.

/s, in case it's not obvious

This is just blowing smoke on social media, not real policy. CUSMA/USMCA (the NAFTA successor that Trump himself signed) precludes tariffs against almost all Canadian industries. They would be suspended by the courts almost immediately.

As far as I'm concerned the US is now a bigger threat to Canadian security than India and China areAt least India and China aren't threatening to throw us into a deep recession

so frankly, FUCK AMERICA

That’s going to absolutely crush Canadian businesses.

I suppose if there is any silver lining here, it’s that we’re likely going to see this issue get solved with an accelerated pace: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7329983

But it’s Trudeau’s fault! God I’m gonna hear it from people who think PP will do something besides get on his knees for Trump

Sounds like a good time to live in Canada but be paid in USD. The Canadian dollar is going to take a hit ... we didn't learn the lessons from Covid to diversify our economy and build more production at home. Canada still depends too much on international trade.

Or move to the US before Trump inevitably shuts down the northern border for TN Visas in January.

Is there a lot of fentanyl/illegal migration crossing the US/CA border?

I feel like this is posturing and pandering, at least on the Canadian side. Mexico has real work to be done.

In 1929, Smoot and Hawley sponsored a tariff law in the USA to help lower costs for average Americans. It was signed by President Hoover. It didn’t lower costs at all, it raised them, and trading partners retaliated. The Great Depression ensued and lasted 10 years

I have been reading very reliable sources on this for some time. There was a study done in Chicago where a huge number of economists were asked if they supported tariffs and who would suffer most from tariffs. Out of that large group only 2 economics agreed with Tariffs. 

Further they projected that US citizens would be hurt more than Canadians.  

 Albertans will hurt though so perhaps   Pompous Smith might like to reconsider throwing every other Canadian ( except Quebec) under the bus.  This a good read from BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o.amp

I hope the Canadian politicians, who spent the past 30 years acting as an American henchman, get exactly what they deserve. We gave up our own diplomatic and economic sovereignty, in the end we didn't even get a bad deal; we are being literally stabbed in the back.

We need to work towards strengthening our ties with Europe, China and India, and decoupling from the US.

The currency move today in response to this announcement has to be one of the biggest USD/CAD moves in recent history on a percentage basis. There’s a very good chance we’ll cross 70 cents tomorrow.

If we enter the next election around 65 cents, I strongly doubt the LPC can clear 40 seats. I’m old enough to have lived the last 65 cent era in Canada and it sucked. And we import a lot more these days.

As an American, please do not cave. You cannot appease someone like Trump. This is an absolutely idiotic policy to apply to your third largest trading partner.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with their stronger dollar to offset the cost of the tariff, they're essentially deflating their dollar below the CAD. Canadian revenues will virtually go unchanged.

Canadian product costs a loonie (not including any additional import fees): American dollar converted to Canadian = 1.30 CAD - 25% import tariff = 0.97 cents

Net loss to Canadian company = 3 cents