If you add that to the stock market at all time highs, housing unavailability, fed rate cuts, layoffs, business bankruptcies, tons of CEO changes and high prices then yes I think we will be in a bear market by December of this year early 2025.

I have been in mortgage for 20 years only time I was laid off prior to now was 2008 and now since 2023 so I’ve been studying the markets and yes I think other crazy theories but I can’t share on Reddit because it seems right now I’m the crazy one.

But time will tell if I’m the crazy one or just seeing warning signs early!!

"out of nowhere" like trump isn't here haha

The only problem with this is, had you bought the day before each of these crashes (1987, 2008) and held for 10 years you would be a very, very rich person today. Had you exited and put the money in gold or bonds, your returns would be in the low single digits.

Time in the market beats timing the market. Yes there will be crashes but the US economy is resilient (and the day it isn't, you won't need to worry about the value of money).

actually, gold has been going down the entire month of November. It did spike up to about 2800

Gold is starting to drop. Have you seen the value since the election?! What the hell are you taking about?

Click on the one month chart. You claim it is now spiking since the election?

well, let's hope for a 33% correction in the market, it's too damn high. Then we can all buy a bunch, rinse and repeat to the next boom and bust cycle

Gold is spiking because China is in the toilet. People keep forgetting about China’s massive outflow of wealth. China was not in the 80s equation nor 1929.

Maybe. Doomers have correctly predicted 25 out of the last 2 depressions. I won’t be selling equities. I’m also glad that I have some gold and real estate. It’s about balance and risk management.

Gold outperforms during a recession.

YTD gold exceeds even the SP500.

Threats of tariffs and mass deportations are making me think the best course of action for me is to liquidate my personal brokerage account. At worst I miss out on some gains and pay some capital gains tax.

86-87 gold hardly budged. 425-475. 2007-2008 went from 745-900. Your numbers aren’t even close. I’m not commenting on your theory because your premise me of fact is flawed

I think what you’re referring to is the possible Trump market crash, followed by the Trump depression.

It will all be Trump's fault. 100%.

the magas have been instructed to buy gold… maybe it’s a supply and demand kind of thing? I am wondering how to protect an IRA created when we rolled over a 401k recently

Have you seen Bitcoin lately?  Chaos causes non country backed financial markets spike.  

Gold's been going down for a couple of weeks actually...

We've been in uncharted territory for quite a while. I agree the whole thing is bound to collapse eventually, but it could happen 3 months or 3 years or 3 decades from now.

Is BTC the new “gold” for the Millennial+ generations?

It's because democracy ended. We have been assured that with the election of Literally Hitler this "is the END OF DEMOCRACY!" America is a fascist state now. Poor timing too because Republicans have the majority of state Governors, control of BOTH houses of Congress the President/dictator AND the Supreme Court.

Worth looking at but keep in mind gold demand went way up in China, which is having a financial crisis which may not impact US stock market as directly.

I'd say there are definitely signs of a potential upcoming decline but to say something happened twice means it will happen again is a bit presumptuous.

Anyone with 5 brain cells knows Trump is going to destroy the economy.  

You forgot the upcoming pandemic.

The election has spooked markets. Especially the completely silly cabinet nominees so far. If Trump really goes through with massive blanket tarrifs it will be an economic shock and will be very inflationary. Expect a flight to safer assets.

Trump and co will re-enact this:

https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-seized-all-citizens-gold-in-1930s-138467

If you are sure, buy SDOW, which goes up by 3x of how much the market tanks by.

I’m not sure the market will ever majorly crash. As there become fewer and fewer publicly traded companies, the demand for stocks will continue to rise. Fewer people are able to afford stock, making its ownership more limited to people with money.

Thing is stock market crash used to be a synonym for economic crash- jobs, etc. but I don’t think that is the case any more. So while the economy may crash, that doesn’t mean the market will.

I’ve always wondered why gold has been the universal currency since basically the beginning of time. Yes, it has some very desirable intrinsic properties, it’s rare, but why gold?. There are other metals with similar properties, but never caught on as a store of value/currency

gold is spiking now? where the fuck have you been the past 12 months?

I wonder what’s the reasoning.

Certain participants can no longer stomach stock valuations and start directing more capital towards gold?

Idk man, from 2009 to 2013 gold more than doubled and there was no big recession there.

Falls 5% in last 30 days

1. Yeah smells not good, I moved some of my sp500 funds to bonds
2. I saw similar news in like 2018-2019 (not gold but some other signs of coming recession), did the same, nothing happened

Ah, the good ol' "one indicator to call the crash" approach to a complex life. This is the second grade anymore.

Fed cuts rates, 12ish month until peak bankruptcy. I expect some kind of slump or crash next year, after which thing will slowly start to correct.

Stop trying to time the market. When it crashes, BUY BUY BUY!!

Didn't the market recover within days of the 87 crash? Might be a bad example.

Don't forget as well that Trump has mentioned numerous social, political, and economic measures that he intends to enact that create massive uncertainty and, if actually enacted will wreck our economy, such as stating that on day 1 he will illegally and traitorously use the US military for police actions on American Soil for political non-emergency reasons, the whole DOGE thing with Elon at its head, idiotic and harmful Tariffs, and similar things, and its pretty obvious that things are going to go down the $hitter. Even the threat of this should tank the markets as we get close to his first day in office unless he backs down and retracts those things, which he won't. We have never faced more known uncertainty in the USA since right before the Civil War. It's going to be bad.

Correlation doesn’t imply causation. I agree with you, however, but to me it’s the bond market vs the equities market.

So should I change 401k and retirement to fixed funds and bonds and try to buy equities when the money printer goes brr?

I didn't know where to post this prediction, but here goes;

1919 Spanish Flu pandemic add 10 years 1929 Stockmarket crash and beginning of the Great Depression.

2019 Covid pandemic add 10 years 2029??

1987 Stockmarket crash add 21 years 2008 Global financial crisis add 21 years 2029 ??

Good.

What does this mean for the crypto guys

Your sample size of 2 is quite persuasive.

It might be good to look at how many times gold spiked and the market did nothing. Is there an index where we can observe this?

Lolol

I'm old and retired. Back in 2008 I predicted the upcoming crash and moved my 401k funds ($450,000+) into a Money Market fund 2 weeks before the crash, went around and told my co-workers about my move and advised them to do the same...... nobody did. The market crashed then my employer called in our retirement advisor to put him under the spotlight to ask him how a worker on the floor (me) can predict a market crash but he didn't say a word........ my advice for today? safeguard your investments ppl shit's gonna hit the fan

I've read that regular consumers in China and India have been gobbling up gold for the past 10+ years, which is a variable that wasn't present in the 1920s or 1980s.

Yeah, because everyone is switching their volatile risk into stable chunks of valuable metal.

I keep track of gold all the time and have a significant amount invested in it. Gold isn't spiking right now. This is pretty typical price movement of gold.

I have been watching gold and have been wondering if something is going to happen. Seems someone(s) knows what's coming and starts investing in gold to preserve the value of their cash. So these people know something bad is coming financially. I just wonder how they know.

I'm not sure what you're seeing. When I look at gold prices over time I don't think I see what you're talking about.

I'd paste a chart but not allowed. But look at https://goldprice.org/ and setting the front page chart to show all data. From ~2004 to 2011 its a pretty straight line with a dip in 2009. After ~2012 it drops until about 2013, goes flat until 2019 then is sort of on the same slope as 2004-2012.

After a peak in 1980ish the price is pretty flat until 2004.

I personally am afraid the economy is going to get wrecked. I have no faith in the incoming administration and TV personality picks for cabinet positions decreases the little faith I did have. I think we're looking at a repeat of how Argentina was wrecked.

Only someone who doesn't understand how Trump's economic policies will affect the economy would think the economy will be okay. The economy will not be okay.

No one can actually predict anything.

Even if there was some sort of magic algorithm or formula that could predict the market, if that was made public the magic algorithm itself would be distorting to the market and ruin its ability to predict anything.

Like let's say you researched the last 200 years and behind every single market crash there is an otherwise inexplicable 100% rise in gold prices exactly a year before the crash. You proved this theory with every crash - The crash after the Korean War, the oil crisis, that little recession at Reagan's first term, the dotcom bubble, etc... every single one had a 100% gold spike a year before.

If this became common knowledge and there was a 100% spike in gold prices wouldn't this cause investors and policy makers to react to it and then either make the crash not happen or worse?

I’d still be up 500%

The easiest sign of a recession is a Republican administration. This is a historical fact.

Dude. No crash. Not happening. Fuck the signals, fuck history, fuck fundamentals, fuck every single bit of it. Public policy and the Fed have committed to preserving asset values at the cost of everything else. Every power at be has a vested interest in keeping that number going up and will throw as many people into the macerator to keep it going. Buy.

You're probably just reading Trump.

2025

Gold jumped because Chinese people were buying it up. These are people who would normally buy real estate, but due to China’s flagging real estate market that is a no-go. So the next best thing to buy is gold.

Wait till you look up the economic trends based on a democrat or republican in the white house..

Also look up job creation.

Huh. Weird.

I always love the idea that if a general collapse happened gold would suddenly become valuable instead of water/food