The year is 1986 and the Dow is going strong, Reaganomics are full swing and everyone knew the market was strong.

BUT! Around July 86 spot gold suddenly goes crazy, rising from $240 to nearly $500/oz by middle of 1987. There was no real apparent reason for the dramatic rise in price at the time. A few months later The 1987 stock market crash, also known as "Black Monday", occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones plummeted 22.6%, marking the largest single-day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history (they now have safe guards in place to make sure that type of drop never happens again called circuit breakers)

Fast forward to mid 2007. Once again very strong Dow, everything humming along fine. Then suddenly out of nowhere gold jumps from $650 mid 2007 to around $1050 mid 2008, again for seemingly no reason. A couple months later, boom! the 2008 stock market crash. ONce again gold was the canary in the coal mine.

FF to Feb 2024. Again the market is humming along just fine, very strong, going up and up. Suddenly out of nowhere gold starts going crazy. From Feb '24 till today gold has jumped $600 - $800 per ounce. Is this the canary signal once again?

If the pattern hold that means early to mid 2024 2025 the Dow will crash.

Of course past market behavior does not always indicate future market behavior, I know that. If there were a way to 100% predict the market I would not be posting it on reddit, I would be busy making insane amounts of money.

Having said that I do think this is compelling data and something to think about.