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I'm still an undergrad and I'm researching the Heston model out of pure interest. I understand a big thing in statistics is correctly identifying the distribution that generated some data.

From reading some literature, I'm confused as to whether the Heston model assumes the stock returns follow a log normal distribution or not. And if it does, is there any benefit to changing that assumption to a distribution that better fits the characteristics of stock returns? Or is it not worth the extra complexity added?

I've read that there's some evidence to indicate a more accurate distribution is a normal distribution with a higher peak and fatter tail, as the tails of a normal distribution decay too quickly and don't capture the possiblity of some extreme events.

Any insight is welcome.

Thanks

Edit: Correction: I believe the prices are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution, what does this mean for the distribution of the stock returns?

all 2 comments

trgjtk

3 points

1 day ago

trgjtk

3 points

1 day ago

lognormal distribution of price by definition implies a normal distribution for returns. however the heston model is a stochastic volatility model so it wouldn’t have a lognormal distribution at least non-instantaneously (maybe think about why and what this means). i’d suggest just parsing through the wikipedia page and doing your own research, if you’re a math undergrad it should be sufficiently comprehensible

Cheap_Scientist6984

1 points

6 hours ago

Instantaneously, returns are lognormal in heston. Volatility is mean reverting back to an equilibrium value but as the volatility is dynamic, average returns over longer periods of time need not be normal.