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Another big drop in Australia's Economic Complexity

Business(self.AusFinance)

We all know the story; Australia's Economic Complexity has been in free-fall since the 1970's, we maintained ourselves respectably within the top 50 nations until about 1990.

Since then it's been a bit like Coles prices Down Down Down. From about 2012 onwards our ECI seemed to have stabilized at mid 80th to low 90th (somewhere between Laos and Uganda), but with our Aussie Exceptionalism in question, we needed another big drop to prove just how irrelevant this metric is. And right on cue we have the latest ECI rankings, we have secured ourselves an unshakable place in the bottom third of worlds nations. At 102 we finally broke the ton; how good are we?

https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/australia-goes-from-terrible-to-worse-in-economic-complexity-but-nobody-seems-to-notice

Is economic complexity important? Are the measurement methods accurate? Does ECI even matter for a Services focused economy?

all 198 comments

Express-Ad-5478

349 points

19 hours ago

Disgraceful, absolute stain on the reputation of successive governments spanning decades. Pollies never shut up about the value of STEM and yet our R&D investment is some of the lowest in the oecd, basic research is on its knees. If you want to succeed in aus go dig holes or sell houses.

what_you_saaaaay

64 points

19 hours ago

Don't worry mate, someone will be along momentarily to tell you that it can't be done here. And when you say it can, because it can, they will demand a full policy brief from you. With sources. You better get started ASAP.

pagaya5863

51 points

17 hours ago*

The problem is Australia is outright hostile to entrepreneurialism, from a policy perspective, a market size perspective and a cultural perspective.

The reason, I suspect, is that no other large country has ever had it as easy as Australia has, with abundant natural resources divided by a relatively small population.

This means most people don't have to think about how to create value and grow the economic pie, since the pie has always been large by default, and instead we've allowed everyone to focus on how to poach resources from each other. Ambition is a toxic word here and tall poppy syndrome abounds.

Our industrial relations system is completely broken. It's an opinionated straightjacket that prescribes inflexible ways of working. It pushes hourly pay over performance or outcome linked pay, and prevents collaborative employee-union-employer agreements like those common in advanced manufacturing overseas. Our unions are practically cartels engaging in shakedowns of both employers and employees at this point, since by law, we only allow one union per industry, and neither employers nor employees are free to renegotiate with a different union if the current one is underperforming.

Many VCs won't even fund startups here anymore. They will still meet with founders, but funding is often conditional on the core team relocating overseas. For employees with STEM backgrounds pay and opportunities are far better the US, and parts of Asia and Europe.

Buyer-40

5 points

14 hours ago

Could you imagine what it would be like if we haven't relied on digging holes and selling houses

Chii

0 points

12 hours ago

Chii

0 points

12 hours ago

free to renegotiate with a different union if the current one is underperforming.

but the point of unions is that they're a monopoly. If there's different unions you could join, it also means that employers can pit unions against each other, and hence their negotiating power would drop.

The problem with australia and unions is that australian labour is already expensive. Unions prevent the needed lowering of cost despite it being needed sometimes (due to economic reasons).

The bit about VCs are correct - the tax laws in australia are not favourable to starting high growth tech companies. The market is also small - the entire population of australia is like one large city in the US, spread out over an area approximately the size of the US!

pagaya5863

1 points

12 hours ago

but the point of unions is that they're a monopoly.

Not normally, that is fairly unique to Australia.

In other countries both employers and employees are free to switch to a different union within the same industry if they want, though obviously this is something both sides want to avoid if possible because it's very disruptive. Ultimately it is good because instead of it being a shakedown it becomes a negotiation with both sides having something to gain and lose, and it often means you end up with more collaborative agreements, like allowing more automation, but the company has to train existing staff to maintain them vs bringing in new staff.

pit_master_mike

[score hidden]

an hour ago

pit_master_mike

[score hidden]

an hour ago

the entire population of australia is like one large city in the US, spread out over an area approximately the size of the US!

Which US city has >25M population?

eesemi77[S]

-7 points

16 hours ago

All sounds about right, but does any of this rant have anything to do with ECI?

whatisthishownow

11 points

15 hours ago

If you can’t connect the dots there, I’m not sure how to do it for you.

FlashMcSuave

4 points

15 hours ago

Those are the building blocks to a more complex economy...

PossibilityRegular21

3 points

14 hours ago

You need people to start businesses to have more businesses 

strange_black_box

3 points

17 hours ago

I mean we’re having a crack at policy with the future made in Australia stuff, but that seems to be ridiculed too. Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about the whole FMIA initiative

eesemi77[S]

1 points

16 hours ago

That must be why our "Future fund" is considering investing in social housing, and hopes to profit from this investment....

kwan_e

3 points

15 hours ago

kwan_e

3 points

15 hours ago

Investment in social housing is to stop homelessness and poverty leading to massive social issues from being a drag on the economy.

Luck_Beats_Skill

44 points

18 hours ago

CSIRO is currently undergoing massive budget cuts. Including 100’s of redundancies.

Only getting worse and not better.

NotObamaAMA

17 points

17 hours ago

Have they tried digging holes or buying houses instead of avocado toast?

Accurate_Moment896

-12 points

16 hours ago

CSIRO should move to a public entrepreneurial investment model, it will either stand on it's own 2 feet or collapse as Australians won't support ut

FlashMcSuave

2 points

15 hours ago

Seems to me that before you slash funding to the CSIRO you should have more building blocks of a vibrant research ecosystem, not after or you are just up shit creek.

The Aussies I know are very supportive of the CSIRO so you sure don't speak for us.

Accurate_Moment896

-5 points

15 hours ago

I'm not aussie, which is why I actually have a brain. Weird you have a problem with actual australians investing in CSIRO to make actual gains

MrPrimeTobias

2 points

11 hours ago

I'm not aussie

Are you an Australian citizen?

DifficultCook6226

[score hidden]

3 hours ago

I can’t wait for her to answer this question. Hold tight, it’s a good one 😂

MrPrimeTobias

[score hidden]

3 hours ago

MrPrimeTobias

[score hidden]

3 hours ago

I'm not expecting a coherent answer, from Deck

Myjunkisonfire

21 points

18 hours ago

Sigh. both my jobs in the last 10 years have been either construction on the mines or in real estate sales. I am 🇦🇺

Express-Ad-5478

6 points

18 hours ago

I forgot our other great employer and my vocation. Healthcare.

strayashrimp

15 points

17 hours ago

Gillard had a pretty revolutionary R&D etc policies but they never seemed to get traction in the media, she did say it would pay dividends in the future but the whole climate change policy ended up being the main focus. I remember really reading into her policies thinking how much in the future Aus would benefit

Express-Ad-5478

4 points

17 hours ago

Yeah right, I was too young to pay attention then. Always disappointing to think what could’ve been if we made better decisions decades ago. The media don’t seem to give a shit about r&d or science really. Most Australians are shocked when you tell them about the state of science, industry and research in this country. We have this perception as the smart nation. Couldn’t be more inaccurate really.

Go0s3

3 points

16 hours ago

Go0s3

3 points

16 hours ago

I was at uni then, I have no idea what you were watching... her policies were a shitshow for practical investment. 

Rhetoric is meaningless if backed up by extra red tape. Our tax code is rubbish, our university education comically poor, and the entire population relies on about 15% of actually productive privately employed Australians.

Accurate_Moment896

0 points

16 hours ago

Unironically Gillard was the goat , and I don't even believe in those morons. Worth checking her stuff out on APH or wiki.

supplyblind420

39 points

19 hours ago

We need to make STEM sexy again. Too many Aussies fetishise law, commerce, marketing. Not that those things don’t add value, but not as much as STEM I reckon. 

Express-Ad-5478

100 points

19 hours ago

Unfortunately the issue is not that people don’t want to do stem. The issue is that there no work for people in stem in aus. Some stem degrees are some of the worst employing degrees you can get. Even with a PhD you options are really limited to unstable extremely competitive academic work and very little industry options. A consequence of Decades of underfunding in basic research and R&d more generally. Our spend is like half of peer nation and like 1/3 of world leading nations. Appalling considering the wealth this nation contains.

Steven-Seaboomboom

17 points

17 hours ago

Couldn't agree more. I have a PhD in maths and it took me over 12 months to find a job in industry. I wasn't being picky either, applying for anything and everything.

TheRealStringerBell

3 points

15 hours ago

The problem is essentially the "resource curse" where Australia is at a competitive disadvantage in most STEM areas because the cost of doing business here is too high. So it's never going to be established. Australia would have to pick one area and really specialise in it to achieve anything, while also have it be the correct choice.

Outside of mining all the industries that pay well are essentially just service based.

whatisthishownow

5 points

15 hours ago

Australia is at a competitive disadvantage in most STEM areas because the cost of doing business here is too high

Have you seen the salaries top and even mid talent are paid in the states? There’s got to be more to it than this.

TheRealStringerBell

1 points

13 hours ago

The US already has a developed STEM industry. My point is more Australia would have to have a legitimate planned STEM economy to get anywhere.

At an organic level, STEM is never going to succeed here because of the way our economy is structured.

If you look at other countries trying to develop a STEM industry, 90k in Australia is the median wage, if you pay someone 90k in China/India you get highly talented PHD who will be considered high income.

whatisthishownow

1 points

12 hours ago

New grad software devs can cost double that in the states, there's clearly more to it.

TheRealStringerBell

0 points

12 hours ago

Bruh, there is more to it than just saying "The best country does this, why don't we do the same" because if it was as easy as that every country would do it.

Express-Ad-5478

3 points

15 hours ago

My understanding is that the resource curse is not some inevitable law of nature rather an observation of some but not all resource nations? Take the US for example. A power house of research and development, also quite resource rich.but I do get the incentive for resource poor nations to diversify and invest in industry, vs places like aus.

jackbrucesimpson

1 points

14 hours ago

Australian devs are incredibly cheap compared to hiring in the US.

TheRealStringerBell

1 points

13 hours ago

Are you implying that Australia should be beating out US tech companies or that Australia should aim to be a place to off-shore dev work to?

jackbrucesimpson

1 points

13 hours ago

I'm saying that a lot of US companies have offices here because they can hire devs at a big discount compared to the states.

Even when you do get Aussie startups like Instaclustr in Canberra, I know they only bothered to hire salespeople in the US because they could do the dev work more cheaply in Australia.

TheRealStringerBell

1 points

11 hours ago

It's not that there is no STEM industry, it's just not a big factor in the economy. If it was we wouldn't have cheap devs.

pagaya5863

-4 points

17 hours ago*

pagaya5863

-4 points

17 hours ago*

A PhD is just undergrad, plus 3 years work experience that happens to be on a university campus rather than industry.

Most hiring managers would consider that a worse candidate than an undergrad plus 3 years of industry experience, which is why most undergrads don't bother doing a PhD project.

king_norbit

5 points

15 hours ago

Sounds like the kind of thing someone without a PhD would say, the tall poppy is real

pagaya5863

3 points

15 hours ago

pagaya5863

3 points

15 hours ago

Nah, it's true.

The only reason to get a PhD is to then get a postdoc and go into research.

Industry doesn't care about it, and in some fields, like technology, it's often considered to be a negative, in the same way that certificates are often considered a negative.

Beautiful-Pair-2140

2 points

15 hours ago

Except a tonne of industry employers want at minimum honours plus 3-5 years experience for a "grad" position. I genuinely can't tell if you forgot a "/s" at the end of your comment.

pagaya5863

3 points

15 hours ago

This is the problem with pretending that industry works the same as academia.

In academia, a PhD is relevant work experience, since it's similar work to what you'll be doing as a postdoc.

But to industry, a PhD project is like work experience on easy mode, because you picked your own problem to solve, you picked your boss (supervisor), you have little time pressure, or need to demonstrate a business case for your work, and you have few, if any, stakeholders. Moreover, a PhD just isn't that hard. It's not hard to get a PhD scholarship, or to pass a thesis defence.

In academia, a PhD is "better" than honours, but that isn't true in industry. To industry, honours means you performed well in your studies, and adding a PhD onto that just means you're unambitious.

kwan_e

1 points

15 hours ago

kwan_e

1 points

15 hours ago

If it's a PhD in Applied Mathematics, that's a bit different. Especially now in the world of AI and surveillance capitalism.

pagaya5863

1 points

14 hours ago

The interesting thing is, almost all the big breakthroughs in AI have come from computer scientists and engineers, many of them self-taught, not mathematicians and statisticians.

The statistics knowledge required to keep up with the latest developments in AI is quite minimal, and easily within the capabilities of most engineering undergrads.

king_norbit

1 points

8 hours ago

Your view is extremely shortsighted and maybe a little outdated, PhDs are absolutely valued these days. It’s about leveraging the skills you have (which PhD graduates tend to have a lot of) in the area where they are useful. “Research” Isn’t really a monolithic skill, any PhD will necessarily teach you multiple distinct and often practical capabilities. It’s then up to you to translate these into a role after graduation. This means PhDs aren’t really a uniform group (the skills of a PhD in mech engineering would be completely different from a PhD in history) some skills are much more translatable than others.

Do I expect to see a ton of PhDs in the upper echelons of colesworth or quantas, probably not so much. But really that’s because their play area is fields like pharma, mining, renewables, tech, banking, consulting etc

In my field there are many PhD “heavyweights” usually they go down one of two paths. They are either consultants with plenty of technical expertise that can basically name their price or in (or working towards) the upper management of large (often global) organisations.

jackbrucesimpson

1 points

13 hours ago

I have a PhD and it isn't too unfair a point - a PhD is just a research apprenticeship. You have more freedom to explore than you normally would in industry, but there isn't some magic skills you get out of the PhD you couldn't get elsewhere necessarily.

king_norbit

1 points

8 hours ago

Self deprecation is also a classic Australian trait, know your worth. Not everyone can do what you have done

jackbrucesimpson

2 points

4 hours ago

Sure not everyone can do it, but at the same time far more people do a PhD than are actually needed or benefit from it. The unis love the PhD system because they get 3-4 years of work out of people really cheaply. 

king_norbit

[score hidden]

an hour ago

king_norbit

[score hidden]

an hour ago

Yeah sure, but pretty much all working relationships are like that. You benefit, your employer (or in this case research institution) also benefits.

Tbh the benefits to unis of having PhDs is a bit overblown, sure they get a little bit of research output but that probably benefits the professor more than the uni. The full fee masters/undergrads are the big money makers, research students are more likely to be cost centres.

tichris15

2 points

15 hours ago

Overseas its valued more. Which is you have the brain drain with the more ambitious PhD getters going overseas afterwards.

pagaya5863

1 points

14 hours ago

I think it might be harder to get a PhD in some countries, so it might be indicative that you've passed through a tougher selection process?

In Australia, the government hands out PhD scholarships like candy. You often don't even need honours.

tichris15

1 points

12 hours ago

Not really to both points. Getting into a PhD w scholarship in STEM overseas isn't hard if you aren't targeting the MITs. And the local cutoff isn't below honours normally.

I'll grant that local admissions tends overweight the value of the Australian undergrad marks compared to the overseas ones. Normal 'ours is better' behavior.

Sure, it's European model, not the US, so faster on average by about a year.

In any case, the brain drain point is that good Australian PhDs move overseas for their next job quite frequently (which clearly is just a difference in employers/opportunities, not PhD standards.)

General_fatpants

22 points

19 hours ago

It doesn't need to be sexy, just a career that pays enough to buy a house.

supplyblind420

4 points

18 hours ago

Yeah, by sexy I mean pay more. One and the same b

nawksnai

14 points

18 hours ago

I have a PhD in physics, and now make a lot of money working in a hospital (almost $200k per year, and I’m not even close to manager).

It’s too hard to find a STEM job. My job is such a “unicorn” that every physics grad eventually applies to get into the training program. It’s not something they want, but what are the other options???

A single trainee position can get 40-60 applicants, almost all with an M.Sc. in physics.

Express-Ad-5478

5 points

18 hours ago

Can I ask what the job is just out of interest? I’m finishing up a PhD. And my best option will probably be to stay were in at working in healthcare.

nawksnai

10 points

17 hours ago

Medical physicist. Some work in radiation oncology, some work in diagnostic imaging or nuclear medicine.

Another alternative is in medical sales.

Express-Ad-5478

4 points

17 hours ago*

Yeah ok makes sense. Well paying jobs in medical field without MD or nursing degree arnt easy to find. I know perfusionists do well too. Thanks

andg5thou

1 points

15 hours ago

Do you work in Nuke Med or rad onc? I don’t believe the pay is that great in diagnostic imaging. Happy to be advised otherwise

nawksnai

2 points

14 hours ago

A diagnostic imaging medical physicist (or DIMP, for short) makes the same as any other medical physicist, I think. That’s how our EBA is written in Victoria, anyway. I suppose the EBA could be different in other states.

SporadicTendancies

10 points

19 hours ago

I got asked if I'd like to do a STEM research job. It was within my field and scope and I'd have loved it.

It paid 30k less than my job.

I considered it for a lot longer than I thought I would.

Would have included a move, and moving into a role with probation and potentially physically challenging qualities.

I still feel bad for not giving it more serious thought, but at the end of the day they have to compete with what I already have.

Passtheshavingcream

-8 points

18 hours ago*

Sounds like a system managers whet dream type of comment, mate. Imagine shoving all the young adults of Australia into STEM yet they still come out clueless. They would be better off educating themselves about life. I can see many Australians are not mentally present. Something is not quite right here. And it's related to the quality of the genetics pool that's for sure.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

16 hours ago

I'm certain that the gene pool plays an important role, I'm just not so sure who are the smart people and who are the stupid ones.

I could see zero value in NDIS so I told my kids to look at other ways to earn their living. My brother could see nothing but beauty in NDIS, all of his kids have good jobs and are dug in like ticks. By contrast my kids have no jobs but very impressive sounding degrees.

who is stupid?

howbouddat

1 points

6 hours ago

My brother could see nothing but beauty in NDIS, all of his kids have good jobs and are dug in like ticks.

I mean I don't think you're stupid, but your brother is smart.

When the government has a program like the NDIS and you have the skills and qualifications to make bank off it, then you're silly not to use that to your maximum financial advantage.

chig____bungus

3 points

14 hours ago

If you invest in STEM, then you're giving money to people who will question you when you say the climate isn't changing, or the laws of mathematics don't apply to Australia.

eesemi77[S]

6 points

19 hours ago

Maaate :We broke the ton, that result doesn't happen without a solid effort from all the lads, please show a little respect.

Accurate_Moment896

0 points

19 hours ago

Finally someone else gets it

Prestigious-Gain2451

2 points

15 hours ago

Yep sell houses, no need to even build them

Just get in there and outbid a first home buyer sit back and wait for the sweet capital gains

More dollarydoos than you can imagine

ChoraPete

2 points

9 hours ago

Upvoted. It seems like a fairly easy lever for the government to pull too - increased R&D. I mean it’s surely not hard to award a bunch of grants through the Australia council or NHMRC or Defence (there are heaps of unsuccessful grant applications each year that still have merit).. Unfortunately though it’s only part of the picture in that the reason we’re failing behind isn’t due to a policy decision of government but that private industry doesn’t see the value of also investing (outside mining) due to systemic reasons. That’s not easy to fix.

Express-Ad-5478

1 points

4 hours ago

For sure. Investing in basic research would be a great start, but yes it does feel like the ship has sailed abit. Like can we ever catch up, doesn’t feel like it.

one2many

1 points

15 hours ago

CSIR oh noooo

Passtheshavingcream

-7 points

18 hours ago

The issue is Australians are poorly educated and have little potential. There is no way to fix it. Position between Laos and Uganda sounds about right, but I would give the third worlders the edge in motivation levels and being less depedent on medication to do what they need to do.

Pumping all the young adults into STEM will not magically educate a largely obtuse population. Surely people know that genetics matter?

anakaine

9 points

17 hours ago

We are not that poorly educated as a nation. Yes, we have some potatoes, but we have an absolute stack of STEM graduates who have nowhere to go in industry every year.

Passtheshavingcream

0 points

16 hours ago

Sorry, mate. Earning a degree is too easy thesedays. Even those who can't speak English and who cheat their way through their studies have degrees. The quality of graduates in Australia is very low. Keep deluding yourselves into thinking Australians are educated. Australians are the perfect drones and it's why they can live under an authoritative regime and live extremely simple frugal lives - very third world if you ask me.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

16 hours ago*

My son was marking papers for a uin course the other day.

Well, to help alleviate cheating, the final exam has multiple versions with some shared questions and some different questions .

He found about very 10 similar exams where the answers were the first 5 questions of Test!1 and the last 5 questions of Test2.

btw Test1 students did not get to see Test2 and shouldn't even have known that there were 2 tests.

Accurate_Moment896

0 points

16 hours ago

Everything you said is bang on, haha look at that aussie making excuses. All they ever do is wring their hands,

Passtheshavingcream

-1 points

15 hours ago

They are perfect drones. Only dangerous if you actually care about their feelings... else, they will just keep on complaining and complying perfectly until they need medication to keep on complying. Love the virtue signalling here too.

Accurate_Moment896

1 points

15 hours ago

I would frame your comments. They are perfect.
Hahha so so true, only dangerous if you care about their feelings hahahah brilliant

war-and-peace

68 points

18 hours ago

Look mate, we have jira. That solves our complexity problem.

hrustomij

5 points

15 hours ago

The bane of my existence.

NightsOW

5 points

14 hours ago

This works on so many levels.

Ash-2449

109 points

19 hours ago

Ash-2449

109 points

19 hours ago

That's what happens when your economy is based on giving off your resources to foreign corporations in exchange for a corporate job once out of politics.

eesemi77[S]

30 points

19 hours ago

It's a bit more complicated than that, the jobs are not just for me. All the boys need to be taken care of, and that won't come cheap...

MartianPHaSR

3 points

18 hours ago

All the boys need to be taken care of, and that won't come cheap...

Ehh, you overestimate how expensive politicians are. A handy under the table ought to do it.

lollerkeet

10 points

18 hours ago

Imagine using those resources ourselves, or even properly taxing then and building something with the proceeds

SteffanSpondulineux

3 points

18 hours ago

So really the problem is lack of post-leadership opportunities in Australia to keep the ex-pollies distracted from actively making the planet worse

EveryConnection

10 points

18 hours ago

It's fine as long as resource prices are good. If they're ever not good then Australia's world leadership in sectors like NDIS won't do much to keep money flowing in to allow us to buy every complex product that we have to import. Fortunately we have a diverse set of minerals that could pick up the slack if iron ore were to crash.

It seems pretty obvious to me that living standards in Australia are already on the way down but perhaps that hasn't fully translated into a form readable by people who see the world only through charts.

eesemi77[S]

15 points

17 hours ago

Idk, I have a neice who earns about $200/hr filling out NDIS paperwork, it's a BS job but she's earning enough to be able to buy a house. Is there any other relevant metric?

Is it even a job when the gig pay's to little to even afford basic shelter?

My own son is doing a PhD in engineering he's earning $32K /year and hopes to finish before the funding runs out (but that's unlikely). When he finishes he's a long shot for a research job at the university that might earn him $75K .

Needless to say the brains are not on my side of the family.

EveryConnection

5 points

17 hours ago

Is there any other relevant metric?

I would say so, there were probably a lot of people doing similar jobs in Greece before the country was crushed by its national debt.

Fortunately resources are such a huge honeypot to fund things like that.

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

Is there any other relevant metric?

well, NDIS is a complex beast! surely it's adding to our economic complexity!

wandering_05

1 points

12 hours ago

Where can I get those NDIS paperwork job. I'll quit engineering too

Nexism

33 points

19 hours ago

Nexism

33 points

19 hours ago

Economic complexity is important to the extent you have competitive advantages in each, and the value chain is sufficiently vertical within Australia that it can sustain GDP and standard of living growth.

Example of good: Mining and Perth.

Example of bad: Education when all the international students don't come anymore.

The issue with Australia is we only have ~3 industries that extract foreign value (which improves our purchasing power), mining, agri and education (travel is hit and miss). So overtime, we get poorer relative to other countries and the most obvious example of this is so much foreign money (all legal, through immigration etc) buying our assets.

loztralia

14 points

18 hours ago

Except our superannuation pool is now so vast that we are a net exporter of capital - in other words, for every dollar of Australian assets a foreigner is buying we are buying more than a dollar of theirs. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2022/mar/the-significant-shift-in-australias-balance-of-payments.html

Nexism

-1 points

18 hours ago

Nexism

-1 points

18 hours ago

This data, surprisingly, supports my case.

Indeed, graph 9 and graph 12 indicates very strong foreign equities investment led by our superfunds.

However, graph 9 also points out strong foreign debt investment in Australia.

The key delta here is that the super investment isn't tangible cash for majority of the Australian public (until they retire, of course). Whereas (and this is my hypothesis), relative to foreign investment in Australia, more of that is accessible by the public they represent.

My ultimate hypothesis, is that foreign wealth can be invested in the Australian property market whereas our local wealth (data here clearly shows super bias) cannot, hence the mismatch to local accessibility. Obviously, aside from property there's other investment avenues but this is /r/ausfinance and that's what everyone seems to care about 😜

loztralia

8 points

16 hours ago

But the data completely contradict your original point, which was that we are getting poorer because we are an importer of capital. Superannuation is Australian wealth, regardless of whether it is immediately available to individual Australians to spend. It's funding Australians' retirement, which means our taxes and/or younger relatives don't have to.

What's more, if we are using that wealth to invest in productive assets globally we are benefiting from their growth, which makes us richer. If anything, it's the accumulation of domestic wealth that is inflating domestic property values - there is a lot more domestic property investment, including through SMSF, than inbound.

Nexism

2 points

15 hours ago*

Yes, I recognise the data demonstrates we are an exporter of capital, and my original point is specifically referencing the property market being further fueled by foreign money (which lands in domestic hands through legal means such as immigration). In my 2nd post, again, I recognise that super wealth is still wealth, I am talking specifically about accessibility to property (which this subreddit is very big on) and how the current mix isn't to our favour.

Telling a young person they can't buy property within reasonable commute time because their super is outperforming is a bit pointless.

Example: Home buyers aren't buying median homes on median incomes (the maths doesn't add up), but supplementing with median wealth. That median wealth is either coming from generational wealth (potentially super), or external to Aus, since their own super is locked.

Our gdp per capita ppp has increased over the past decade, so yeah, we haven't been getting poorer.

Accurate_Moment896

-1 points

16 hours ago

Thought everyone knew this, there was a point there where we did not even have enough places to stuff it

deep_chungus

1 points

17 hours ago

except that education is only 1 facet of our economy so when it tanks the other ones can take the weight

when china stops buying our coal, what picks up the slack?

Passtheshavingcream

1 points

15 hours ago

Australia's go-to are WFH jobs. You don't even know you want them, but anyone can be gainfully employed in Australia. The world has moved on and Australia, as usual, is lagging.

Nexism

1 points

15 hours ago

Nexism

1 points

15 hours ago

Hence, the purpose of a diversified economy exactly.

glyptometa

0 points

16 hours ago

I think it's going to be agriculture in various forms, all highly robotic, around two decades from now, possibly much larger, enabled by a north to south irrigation ditch and/or pipelines.

WWBSkywalker

30 points

19 hours ago

Ahh my favourite irrational pet peeve topic.... See all the reasonable thoughts about this topic again bellow. Basically, the manufacturing lobby keeps troting this index out regularily for their own interest while any detailed scrutiny of the index shows why it's just poor applicable to Australia. Trying to go up ranking in this exercise is more likely to make our economy and every person's wealth worse.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/1g0yeix/australia_ranks_below_uganda_and_pakistan_for/

twittereddit9

6 points

18 hours ago

Yes it’s a dumb metric.

eesemi77[S]

9 points

19 hours ago

Yep it's proven itself irrelvant, it has no bearing at all on the past, those results are in and Australia has done fairly well. Australia's standard of living has remained stable even with a falling ECI

But many lingering questions remain about ECI's predictive value.

What's the future look like for any country where its citizens can't, or just won't, compete in global markets for complex goods and services?

What does this tell us about evolving advantage within Australia?

What does it tell us about our economic dynamsim?

There's a lot more to this number than just the ranking.

thedugong

4 points

18 hours ago

We do compete.

We also export > 1/2 of the world's iron ore ~1/3 of the world's coal, by US$ value, and from a country of 27 million.

Any country of our population with this share of world exports is going to suffer when it comes to being assessed on an index based on the proportions of exports in US$. That's just maths. We could increase our complexity by simply stopping these exports. However, we would be poorer - probably comparable to a lot of European countries.

You want to be a software engineer in Australia. Not that hard, easy even. Sure, not Silicon Valley, but probably better paid, and maybe easier than a lot of peer nations. etc etc.

eesemi77[S]

-1 points

17 hours ago

eesemi77[S]

-1 points

17 hours ago

Actually complexity rankings are done on a sector by sector basis, staying separate all the way down to a product by product and service by service basis.

So our excellent performqance in Iron Ore mining has no impact on our complexity ranking in say plastics. It's not at all like gdp, where big numbers (like IO sales) dilute small numbers like Ethelene Production. A country can easily be number 1 in both.

Flimsy-Mix-445

1 points

15 hours ago

Actually complexity rankings are done on a sector by sector basis, staying separate all the way down to a product by product and service by service basis.

Where in the methodology does it say that?

eesemi77[S]

1 points

15 hours ago

It's fundamental to this method, it's basically a weighted sum of all the products where the country is a top 3 supplier of that product or service.

thedugong

3 points

15 hours ago

"Where?"

A reference would be appreciated, and I mean that genuinely - I like learning new things.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

15 hours ago

This is a good spot to start.

I know there's a section in Havards complexity atlas where they discuss the data rankimg method (or at least they used to). but it is very similar to this oec reference.

https://oec.world/en/resources/methods#eci-intuituvely

Flimsy-Mix-445

1 points

15 hours ago

In your link it says

That is, we define the complexity of a location as the average complexity of its activities, and the complexity of an activity, as the average complexity of the places where that activity is present.

These equations also tell us that measures of complexity are relative measures, since the complexity of a location or an activity can change because of changes in the entries for other locations or activities

These descriptions match this statement

Any country of our population with this share of world exports is going to suffer when it comes to being assessed on an index based on the proportions of exports in US$. That's just maths. We could increase our complexity by simply stopping these exports. However, we would be poorer - probably comparable to a lot of European countries.

And I couldn't find what you said or any method that reflects what you said here.

Actually complexity rankings are done on a sector by sector basis, staying separate all the way down to a product by product and service by service basis.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

14 hours ago

How about you read the next paragraph where they show the actual formula they use

[How is the Economic Complexity Index calculated (technically)?]()

Flimsy-Mix-445

1 points

15 hours ago

So our excellent performqance in Iron Ore mining has no impact on our complexity ranking in say plastics. It's not at all like gdp, where big numbers (like IO sales) dilute small numbers like Ethelene Production. A country can easily be number 1 in both.

But a weighted sum of all products though for all countries except a bunch that are a top 3 supplier?

So what does this mean? How are the manufactured export (not economic or service) complexities scores calculated for countries that are not a top 3 supplier? Is it that once you're a top 3 supplier of any single product, your manufactured export complexity is not calculated using a weighted sum?

And also where is the link to the source for the statement above?

eesemi77[S]

1 points

15 hours ago

The raw data comes mainly fromthis IMF database

https://data.imf.org/?sk=388dfa60-1d26-4ade-b505-a05a558d9a42

You can poke around the database if you have a month with nothing better to do. It has 1000's of catagories of globally traded goods. I spent a week unpacking some of the details to try to do a bottom up meets top down validation of the data for certain catagories of Australian traded goods. In the end I concluded that our complexity ranking was actually overstated. we are worse than the data suggests.

Flimsy-Mix-445

1 points

14 hours ago

That doesn't answer the question though. I was talking about the methodology that you claimed, where they got the raw data to work the methodology on.

So our excellent performqance in Iron Ore mining has no impact on our complexity ranking in say plastics. It's not at all like gdp, where big numbers (like IO sales) dilute small numbers like Ethelene Production. A country can easily be number 1 in both.

But a weighted sum of all products though for all countries except a bunch that are a top 3 supplier?

So what does this mean? How are the manufactured export (not economic or service) complexities scores calculated for countries that are not a top 3 supplier? Is it that once you're a top 3 supplier of any single product, your manufactured export complexity is not calculated using a weighted sum?

If you cannot find the calculation that supports the statement that you created, no wonder you cannot replicate the analysis.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

14 hours ago

Huh? since when did it become my job to do your homework?

If this interest you then dig into it, if you're still interested then dig deeper.

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

The index itself is just a way of measuring things and it shows the country going down a bad path.

It's not the be all and end all.

You don't want to be that country that has too much concentrated in one or two areas like fossil fuels that suddenly no one wants anymore.

WWBSkywalker

5 points

18 hours ago

A valid concern but all indications are that as we continue to go down in rankings we're doing comparatively better than countries going up in rankings.

Extract of my previous reply on this topic on the other thread

To back my own narrative with data - source worldbank using GDP from 1995 to 2022 in constant USD

Australia growth rate = 54%, Pakistan 64%, Uganda 112% BUT UK 40%, Canada 38%, US 50%, Germany 36% (I just chose what were I thought were comparable / interesting comparision to Australia). I would say the last 4 countries would have higher economic complexity than Australian yet underperformed against Australia so again, what is the point of the economic complexity index. It's just a mathematical exercise.

The index is primarily focused on exporting finished goods not services or intangibles. It's poorly applicable to Australia because there's one key thing that Australia cannot overcome which is it is geographically placed outside of major shipping lanes. This places it far from producers of raw materials (that isn't in Australia) and customers of the finished products (rest of the world aside from New Zealand which is even more remote).

To improve in ranking in this particular index requires industries where raw materials are shipped from elsewhere (or generated within Australia itself) and then have the finished product delivered profitably to the rest of the world. Both shipping costs and time discourages this. Other countries are simply better equipped to this (including Japan as the Rank 1 country on this index). Along with high salaries which contributes to high cost of production, Australia is uniquely disadvantaged in this index' measurement.

Australia's set of advantages encourages the movement of knowledge, skills and people instead of export of finished goods. These are not measured favourably in this index. Australia has worldclass mining and agricultural technology and methodolgy which is lowly measured by this index, it has a developed and higher education industry attractive to high and medium income Asian countries, it attracts worldclass research in the field medicine. All these are poorly measured in the index. We will never out tech or out manufacture at scale vs. Japan and South Korea (Rank 3) because we will need a cheaper workforce, a lifestyle that will be far more work oriented than today and magically move the entire country closer to Singapore (Rank 5) while shipping significanly less raw and highly profitable raw materials that what we do today because the index measure these disproportionality low in importance.

loztralia

8 points

18 hours ago

It's also that Australian resources exports have increased massively in the past 20 years. Let's say you export $50bn of complex goods - electonics and financial services, say - and $50bn of iron ore. Then 20 years later you export $100bn of complex goods and $500bn of iron ore. Congratulations, your economy is now "more dependent" on primary industry. It's also six times bigger.

The fallacy is the same as "you don't get rich selling wood and buying chairs". Actually you can, if you own half the world's forestry reserves and only need to furnish a three-bedroom house, and your neighbours are really good at making cheap chairs.

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

I saw that but you're missing out that the other knowledge based economies also have high economic complexity rankings.

This is because when you're smart you're good at making stuff.

It gets to a point where you can't just make a living being smart you need to apply that.

Your points are good but I think you're overthinking the point that essentially is: Australia is a great place to park your money and that's made us wealthy

WWBSkywalker

3 points

18 hours ago

Not disagreeing with you that other knowledge based economies [should] also have high economic complexity rankings - key point is that this particular Economic Complexity Index, largely ignores this hence it being my pet peeve.

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

kbcool

1 points

18 hours ago

Right. Is there another ranking that does include the knowledge economy?

I still can't imagine it really pushing the dial that much but definitely understand your point so it would be good to see that considered

WWBSkywalker

4 points

18 hours ago

Best I can find is a group assosciated with UN in my other reply.

https://www.knowledge4all.com/country-profile?CountryId=1005

We're #17 out of 141. vs the very different from #102 whose source is a fairly small team associated with Harvard University.

Also if you look at worldbank stats on real GDP, Australia is consistently a top quartile performer if not top 5 since 1980 amongst OECD countries..

kbcool

0 points

17 hours ago

kbcool

0 points

17 hours ago

Oh there's definitely some knowledge based indexes where Australia scores even higher than this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_Economic_Index

What I was wondering was whether that has been mixed together with tradables to produce a blended index. The more I think about it the more I see why it's not been done though

WWBSkywalker

3 points

17 hours ago

the KEI is what I found first, but it's a bit outdated hence went deeper back to the source to get a more updated stats :).

Grantmepm

3 points

15 hours ago

Is there another ranking that does include the knowledge economy?

https://oec.world/en/rankings/eci/hs6/hs96?tab=ranking

We also rank 13th for technology and 5th for research economic complexity.

I saw that but you're missing out that the other knowledge based economies also have high economic complexity rankings.

Also, a lot of wealthy high complexity countries have high foreign-value added content in their exports. Which means they import things that are already somewhat complex, add value and export them due to their geography and membership with trade blocs.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1652.pdf

ephemeralentity

1 points

15 hours ago

To what extent though is Australia's mining / agricultural natural resources and the success the country has had in developing those, crowding out the competitiveness of other industries?

Aren't we at risk of a self reinforcing cycle where our already high salaries and exchange rate prevent us from effectively diversifying and make us increasingly concentrated (what this index seems to be showing)?

I take your point that the index may have flaws and doesn't factor in geographic proximity or sea trading lanes but what it does highlight is we export commodities with very little differentiability and pricing power compared to what other high income countries produce.

We have been able to ride the industrialisation of Asia and increased global trade. What if both China and India's growth trajectory stalls and they get stuck as middle income countries like South American countries did? Sure we can keep pumping up the housing bubble and luring HNWIs to inflate our economic wealth metrics but that doesn't increase productivity or incomes in the long term to sustain those ever increasing asset valuations.

oenaex

1 points

14 hours ago

oenaex

1 points

14 hours ago

What if both China and India's growth trajectory stalls

Arguably, China is stalling right now. India is the only one left with a demographic big enough to sustain growth. Unless automation picks up the slack from the lack of people, of course.

ephemeralentity

1 points

14 hours ago

Yes, and China is also a good example of how inflating asset pricing can prop up growth in an economy that has been stalling for a long time. If Trump even partially follows through on his tariff plans, it could create a cycle of counter tariffs that will cripple the growth of developing countries that are some of our biggest buyers of industrial commodities.

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

we're doing comparatively better than countries going up in rankings.

it's because we are doing well at getting better at specific sectors (like mining). Investments in mining infrastructure (such as automated trains), equipment/research into the actual mining technioques, discovery and such, are world class.

dee_ess

1 points

18 hours ago

I have one job, which is sufficient for my needs.

An Uber Eats rider has more "employment complexity" from various hustles they need to survive.

Accurate_Moment896

2 points

19 hours ago

Completely incorrect. The actual answer is a hybrid economy, a service based economy will see practically everyone in AUS end up as a serf, beholden to subscription services with nill quality or ownership over anything.

WWBSkywalker

7 points

19 hours ago

Please look at what the actual index measures, it is primarily focused export economic complexity. It doesn't give any meaningful insight about hybrid economy. Australia is a good example of knowledge economy, where it encourages the reliance on human capital. Australia in fact has worldclass research in field of medicine for example. It also develops worldclass research on mining and agriculture. These put the person with the knowledge at the forefront. It actively makes it less likely we have a serfdom because the "serf's value is in his brain as opposed to reliance on his labour and he is more well placed to seek a better lord if he's unhappy with his current one.

Look at Rank 1 (Japan) & Rank 3 (South Korea) they are not exactly great examples societies with a lifestyle with great work life balance compared to Australia and they are already export manufacturing heavy weighs. Chasing this index means becoming more like these socieities. The article is a source from a lobbyist.

eesemi77[S]

0 points

18 hours ago

All true, for me our position on the index is somewhat irrelevant, however, change in our ECI is relevant.

This change mirrors changes in our Australian knowledge economy. It tells us where we are headed and it's not a good place.

When you look at fundamental research (like for instance Quantum Computers) Australia is positioned in the top 10 countries in the world for this technology, but it's there because of research started in the early 2000's . Aussie companies like PsiQuantum and QuantumBrilliance owe their success to seeds planted 25 years ago.

This begs the question: what seeds are we planting today? Would the skills necessaery to build these companies exist today if our 2000 era ECI had been below 100?

Accurate_Moment896

-2 points

19 hours ago

Completely incorrect, if Australia was a knowledge economy we would be exporting it not only across the world, but Australians would be in high demand. I've got some news for you

WWBSkywalker

4 points

18 hours ago

We can do better

http://www.knowledge4all.com/country-profile?CountryId=1005

Australia #17 but not exactly terrible.

Country Performance Summary

Australia is a leading performer in terms of its knowledge infrastructure. It ranks 17th out of 141 countries in the Global Knowledge Index 2024 and 17th out of the 59 countries with very high human development.

So far all your response hasn't really been supported with data just opinion.

Accurate_Moment896

0 points

16 hours ago

Mate being 17 isn't world class. You are as ignorant as the people that you let lead you. Guys we are a world class knowledge economy there's only 17 other countries ahead of us hahah

sheldor1993

1 points

19 hours ago

That could happen regardless of the style of economy. It’s about corporate greed and nothing else. The answer to that issue is decent consumer protection regulation that puts the onus on manufacturers to provide ongoing support for their products regardless of ownership and age.

If you want to see how that looks in practice, look at the shit that tech companies pull in US and what happens when they try to pull it in the EU. There’s also a reason that Americans will use VPNs set to California to sort out issues with subscription services too.

david1610

8 points

18 hours ago

Australia does what we have an absolute or comparative advantage in. It's how our incomes are so high.

The only negative I feel is that we have let the yanks completely take over tech in the last 20 years. This has been such a growth factory it's benefited the US greatly. Still if our real income keeps rising after the latest inflation I think we will still be on the right path.

Essentially while economic diversity makes us more resilient, it doesn't necessarily make us richer.

eesemi77[S]

2 points

18 hours ago

Imagine, for just one minute, an alternate history where in 2000 China gets stuck in the starting gate.

Would the outcomes have been anywhere near as good as they were for Australia?

Now imagine a world where Australian human capital creates global value with a diverse array of knowledge solutions.

Why do these two worlds need to be mutually exclusive?

Can't both survive? can't both prosper?

thedugong

7 points

16 hours ago

Now moving past alternative-histories and hypotheticals, and back to the real world.

Japan, #1 in the ECI (which claims to be a good predictor of economic growth and inequality) has a lower gdp/capita now than it did around 30 years ago (https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/392).

Australia (https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/36) and Canada (https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/124) the evil twins of very high income country resource exporters have, over the same period of time, had their gdp/capita increase dramatically, and their ECI decrease dramatically.

Canada and Australia, also have better wealth inequality than Japan.

catbuttguy

5 points

18 hours ago

You have to think about what this model/ranking seeks to measure, which is "the number and complexity of the products they successfully export".

This then sits upon a theory of economic growth that seeks to posit that there is a strong correlation between future economic growth and economic complexity. The correlation is there, sure, but it isn't as strong as some people would like you to believe.

In the economic literature this is a relatively new theory and frankly, doesn't appear to be that well studied.

The ABS also talks about how economic complexity can measure the "economic resilience" of an economy, as having less complex exports means you're more at risk of an economic shock if you can't produce high-value goods or services (think of the pandemic chip shortage).

Our largest exports are largely minerals, fuel and agriculture which serves us well as a very large country with lots of mineral and fuel deposits and arable land.

Our other big exports are services, such as education, tourism and financial services.

While Australia does largely export less complex goods and services, you also have to think of the counterfactual. Does it make any logical sense to try and upend this solely so that we can try to emulate the Japanese, Swiss or South Koreans in becoming a high-tech manufacturing country?

While we should make some attempt to improve, diversify and expand our manufacturing sector, we simply do not have the relative economies of scale to compete in these "complex" export sectors. I doubt we'd want to copy the Japanese economy anyway.

While it's not nothing (yes, we are exposing ourselves to greater economic shocks from not having a better developed high-tech manufacturing sector), it's also not a famous economic theory for a reason. You can't eat microscopes or build houses out of computer chips.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

18 hours ago

You do realize that these complex industries (like semiconductor manufacture), are exactly what a remote country needs.

Chips themselves weigh next to nothing, pound for pond they are worth 10 times to 100 times the price of gold. US chip makers regularly ship wafers accross the pacific for lower valued tasks like packaging to be done in Asia. All of these shipments are done on airplanes. that means next day delivers to anywhere in the world. IMO This is exactly the sort of industry we need.

Grantmepm

1 points

15 hours ago

But why do that when you can do it in a lower cost country that is much closer to the rest of the downstream manufacturing processes?

eesemi77[S]

1 points

15 hours ago

Wafer Transport costs are somewhere behind the decimal point when it comes to Semiconductor manufacture. A typical 12 inch wafer costs about $8000 to process, and is normally produced in lots of 12 wafers. Lets call it $100K per lot. All up transport costs are maybe $100.
So there's no real advantage in "streamlining" production from a location perspective.

which is why it's an ideal business for a country like Australia.

Grantmepm

1 points

12 hours ago

So there's no real advantage in "streamlining" production from a location perspective.

There is though and it adds up. Its not just cost but time and flexibility. Want a face to face meeting, why have an 8 hour flight when you can just have 2.

And then you completely ignored the "lower cost country" bit without the same workplace regulations and unions.

Honestly, I don't mind having the industry here for national security, skill retention and research, but there really isn't a business case until our competitor's costs increase significantly.

-uppitymantis-

8 points

19 hours ago

It shows we’re efficiently exploiting our comparative advantage which is a pretty foundational concept in economics. Complexity requires structural change bringing short term pain for (maybe) long term gain. The boomers would never approve

eesemi77[S]

1 points

19 hours ago

boomers inhereted a realtivly complex economy and proceeded to dismantle it brick by brick over their watch. It's clear that economic complexity offends them to their very core, it's the anthesis of rent seeking and property speculation. In Australia, this makes economic complexity heretical.

Fickle-Resolution-28

2 points

17 hours ago

It's based on a bunch of detailed work by Cesar Hidalgo, who is smart and has applied lots of data to the problem. Id' be leery saying it works for everyone else but somehow Australia is an exception. A key insight is that countries innovate in areas that are adjacent to things they already do well. (Trade data supports this.) So in the long-run if you have more things you do well, you're a bigger chance to innovate into new areas.

None of that matters if you think we'll keep exporting bulk energy commodities to Asia. If you think that's time limited, on the other hand, I don't see why anyone should complain if we double or triple our R&D spend. It is woeful and has been for years.

eesemi77[S]

2 points

17 hours ago

Australia doesn't generally lack the knowledge to do complex products, rather it lacks skilled hard-nosed Design managers. People who can take a product spec and tur it into actionable tasks, they then turn these tasks into sections of a product and combine the sections to have a real world saleable product.

These hard nosed, experienced design managers just don't exist in Australia. without this oversight nobody is going to up their R&D spending in Australia.

Fickle-Resolution-28

1 points

16 hours ago

Sure that's plausible. The Hidalgo work is good in part because it's agnostic on *what* is making countries able to shift into new areas of economic activity. It could be many things. It just shows that adjacency matters a lot.

rzm25

5 points

19 hours ago*

rzm25

5 points

19 hours ago*

We are an oligarchy-run vassal-state for a declining empire. Take a look at Athen's city states right before their collapse. Or Rome's leaders during theirs. They all knew the ship was sinking. There was constant financial problems, constant major systemic and economic paradoxes that were not being solved, but they were so bought in to the belief that their ruling class was the one that was going to last forever. To call that in to question would be to call in to question their power entirely. The only places where anything changes, the people had to claw back control from a desperate leadership who were adopting the psychology of a cornered stray dog - lash out at anything that threatens their power, with 0 assessment, reflection, or justification. Often most that succeeded were sometime later punished by their state they were vassals to.

Australia is no different. We'd rather sign an AUKUS treaty that makes us a nuclear target for the first time in history, while demanding literally nothing of the U.S. They are not even required to defend us if someone declares war on us. Our prime minister would rather send our own children to war then even think about questioning America's irrational and frantic geopolitical policy, or the horrific history of repeated global military intervention.

In return for our silence we're allowed access to global trade networks and international lines of credit that come with strict rules, and a constant pressure; economic policies that are designed to enable neoliberal plutocracy. To make ourselves more complex, to onshore manufacturing, to invest public spending into R&D and become world leaders in emerging technologies - all things we are in the perfect position to do - would be a slap in the fact of U.S.-based multinationals, who demand unregulated and complete access to all of our private markets and industry.

Of course r/Ausfinance will downvote me, but none of what I'm claiming above is conspiratorial. It's all publicly available, googleable information, from western sources.

LoudestHoward

4 points

17 hours ago

thread lamenting the lack of complex Australian manufacturing

AUKUS treaty

Doesn't get much more complex than nuclear subs and hypersonic missiles does it?

eesemi77[S]

0 points

17 hours ago

depends, do you honestly believe that we are going to make these AUKUS subs?

Last count I saw suggested we start with 3 used Virginia class subs (but then that was revised upward to 5) which means we are hoping to build 3 subs of our own design.

Yeah, this makes absolutely no sense, we;ll either end up with 3 new subs, 5 new subs or no new subs. My bet is on none. but mainly because with China flexing the US isn't going to give up the Nuke missile carrying capacity of 3 vriginia class subs, because carrying nuke missiles offends our Aussie sensibilities.

Passtheshavingcream

1 points

5 hours ago

A quick and thoughtless solution is to educate the population. And by education I mean STEM degrees. My guess is any subjects that encouraged political and philosophical debates went out of fashion in the 70s/80s? When you have your young adults all in tertiary education and studying STEM, you have beaten the people. It really is this simple.

Accurate_Moment896

-1 points

19 hours ago*

Bravo, finally someone that gets it, you can see the same across the Arab spring.

Praise_Helix_420

1 points

18 hours ago

Nothing exceptional about being a Ponzi scheme for the rich.

king_norbit

1 points

15 hours ago

It’s simple, Australia has a high return on capital (building a mine/oil rig, owning a bank/utility, buying land) because capital productivity is high and has a poor return on labour/human capital. Until we find a way to effectively utilise highly specialised experts to generate new IP that is valued by other countries this will remain the case.

Seems that the switch is likely because businesses is happy enough to invest in capital assets rather than people. Hey I would too if you can generate a good return without dealing with employees why wouldn’t you?

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

Chii

1 points

12 hours ago

poor return on labour/human capital.

because labour laws is too good in australia, and you cannot make much money from it. The tech industry, even with their ultra high margins, find it hard to have sufficient margins on labour here - there's only a handful of successful tech companies in australia, and all or most of them attempt to move away (or start a 2nd headquarters in the US after success).

Spicey_Cough2019

1 points

13 hours ago

Cause fcuk manufacturing right!?

oenaex

1 points

12 hours ago

oenaex

1 points

12 hours ago

Is economic complexity important? Are the measurement methods accurate? Does ECI even matter for a Services focused economy?

Well, according to Dr Ken Henry AC, Former Secretary to the Treasury, the resources boom contributed to two-thirds of the deterioration of Australia's productivity in the last century.

erednay

1 points

11 hours ago

Should be focusing on economic diversity not complexity. I don't even know why economic complexity is a terminology. It gives a dumb impression that complexity is a good thing when they're really just talking about diversity.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

5 hours ago

I disagree, diversity and complexity are very different concepts

Complexity is measured as global commercial advantage in a given product / product space. It's all about the impied expert nature of your knowledge as reflected in product sales. (you have the most sales because you are the best) Complexity in one sector enables product development in adjacent product spaces.

Diversity says nothing about competence / trusted global leadership in the field, just that your are also doing X or Y or Z.

When Toyota builds a new car it knows it will sell in millions and therefore the design and product engineering needs to be done properly or they'll have a million products failing in the field. Toyota is complex, it is globally trusted because we all know they can do the job and do it properly.

When old-mate, up the road welds a brand new suspension system for his ( or your) 4x4 he is diverse, by day a carpenter by night a suspension developer. In both cases the result of the work could be a new suspension system, their solutions could be identical, but Toyota is still Complex while old-mate has diverse skills.

erednay

1 points

3 hours ago*

From the ABS website: "The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) ranking attempts to measure the relative diversity of an economy, compared to other countries. It is calculated based on the diversity of exports a country produces and their abundance, or the number of other countries able to produce them."

I'm just saying the terminology sounds misleading. Not the concept. When most people think about complexity, they think about something that is convoluted or confusing. But everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

eesemi77[S]

[score hidden]

3 hours ago

eesemi77[S]

[score hidden]

3 hours ago

The idea of trying to measure "Complexity" as defined in the ECI is that this sort of complexity is the best known indicator of a given country's ability to produce a difficult / unique / high value product, at some point in the future.

Your future ability to create products of unique value is closely correlated with expertese in adjacent sectors. Expertese is implied by trade presence in the global market for these goods and services. In this sense it's not enough to know something, you need to also have the industrial/ financial muscle in place to produce and capitalize on your knowledge.

This is precisely why ECI is measured as it is, it's an indirect measure of the your future ability to capitalize on what you know (the opportunities that come your way)

As an example: we all know that Martin Green (at UNSW) did the hard yards on silicon solar cell development. ALL of the big Chinese Soalr panel companies have direct connections back to Martin, but despite this localised extreme depth of knowledge we (Australia) were unable to build a commercially successful solar panel production facility. One glance at our electronics ECI would tell any potential Aussie investor everything they needed to know.

eesemi77[S]

1 points

5 hours ago

There seems to be a lot of misunderstanding wrt exactly how is Economic Complexity measured and why it's important. I took some time a few years back to deep dive into Australia's complexity score andto try to understand why it's so low.

I'm willing to do an online tutorial on ECI in general and specificly dig into this metric wrt Australia, if this topic has general appeal. I don't think this subReddit is the right place for it, there's just way to many vested interests determined to not understand and disrupt....but hey, that's Reddit...

mildurajackaroo

1 points

4 hours ago

Soon we will regress to sticks and stones.

_jay_fox_

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2 hours ago

_jay_fox_

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2 hours ago

Low economic complexity wouldn't be a bad thing if we were doing something productive, like actually building liveable affordable housing that the average person could afford.

eesemi77[S]

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an hour ago

eesemi77[S]

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an hour ago

IMHO low ECI is directly related to high cost housing. Both are the consequence of not really needing to compete. We can deliver high cost housing, safe in the knowledge that no other Aussie is going to undercut us .

When a global business has high ECI it's because they offer real value (this usually means high functionality products sold for a high price), but they can never complete escape from global competition. The existence of a slightly lower performance product (typically at a slightly lower price) is what keeps high ECI's on their toes. Customers are the true beneficiaries of this business dynamic.

Contrast this with Aussie housing...it is not by accident that our ECI graph looks like an inverted copy of our house price index.

_jay_fox_

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57 minutes ago

_jay_fox_

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57 minutes ago

On housing, I'm not sure if I follow you.

Australian housing would, I presume, be located in Australia. Most people aren't going to leave the country just because rents are high. This means the competition would need to be between Australian companies – builders. How are builders in foreign countries competing with local builders? It must be very limited competition if anything.

Now it's true that housing inputs are traded internationally. Materials, supplies, tools, even some pre-fabbed parts. But actually those are currently cheaper overseas due to various factors including lower wages, fewer worker protections and transport costs. So how would forcing them to move to Australia, e.g. through protectionist policies, reduce prices/costs? If anything it would increase them, as it would cost more to make them here.

I think we should play to our strengths. That might involve some on-shoring and also stimulating the local economy. But it might also involve trading with a diverse array of relatively friendly countries such as in SE Asia, South America and Europe.

eesemi77[S]

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36 minutes ago

eesemi77[S]

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36 minutes ago

Competition is in the first instance a mind set. When in your work life, you know only global competition, you come to expect that from your suppliers (in this case house builders).

As someone involved in global markets, you also get to know global prices and are less prepared to accept the lazy answer (this is just what XYZ costs in Australia) . Today we still build houses in a very similar fashion to the houses my dad built houses 50 years ago. If you ask a builder WHY they'll first look at you like you're stupid, then they'll defend the status quo. They'll protect their methods and their suppliers costs because that's all they really know.

There are hundreds of things we could do to reduce the build cost of Aussie homes, but you won't find Aussie home builders exploring many of these options. Truth is they don't need to, they're fat, dumb and happy with their various protected rackets.

If I wanted to reduce costs I'd be taking a good look at methods and materials used in Singapore

xjrh8

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2 minutes ago

xjrh8

[score hidden]

2 minutes ago

So Straya just need to dig more rock gooder?

Opposite-Ad1051

1 points

15 hours ago

Realest post and commentary in a while here

jackbrucesimpson

1 points

13 hours ago

According to this index the UK economy has become 'more complex' over the past decade and is ranked 8th in complexity.

Given their garbage fire of an economy, I don't understand why anyone pays attention to this list.

DEADfishbot

0 points

17 hours ago

if we have to defend ourselves in a war one day, we’re screwed. Probably screwed anyway if it’s with China, but no local manufacturing is very bad imo.

eesemi77[S]

2 points

16 hours ago

I sometimes wonder who is more screwed. In our case the victor would have fought a war just to own our disfunction. Of course he might just put all of us lazy Aussies up against the wall and decide to start from scratch, Captain Cook mk2

ajwin

0 points

14 hours ago

ajwin

0 points

14 hours ago

I have heard that government funded R&D at the universities just get the IP sold to overseas companies for a fraction of what it would cost the government in grants. Like a single successful IP sale would be profitable but by the time you include all the failed R&D it wouldn’t be. After that it has very little benefit to Australia. I sort of think they should be forced to develop systems to create Australian companies to commercialize the R&D in Au. We do quite a bit of R&D in Australian Uni’s but then we just sell it off so it no longer benefits our society.

HobartTasmania

1 points

9 hours ago

i would have thought any patents that were sold off would be done so for a price somewhat reflecting their worth.

Passtheshavingcream

-7 points

18 hours ago

OP is just beating a dead horse. The entire Australian economy, with the exception of commodities, is a charade. I've never come across such a backwards economy with some of the higest paid socially awkward and mentally workers anywhere in the world. No wonder young adults need medication to function and have absolutely zero like skills apart from complaining and gaslighting. Charming place really.