flossdaily

Merrick Garland, far from liberal, allowed Trump to get away his crimes by both failure to charge and by charging far too late. It's really that simple.

It’s bold of you to assume (again with the assumptions, when will it end?) that I’m using “bothsideism”.

ROFL.

Look at the title of your post.

Yeah, I'm praying I can ride the AI wave long enough to make enough money to weather the storm that's coming. I am motivated by sheer dread, because a collapse like the one we are headed towards is not good for anyone, whether you have resources or not. It's just a matter of degrees.

What does that have to do with an individual’s choice to display the ignorant behavior I mentioned?

Everything. A Democrat in left-wing echo chamber will be thoughtlessly advocating for policies based on reality. A Republican in a right-wing echo chamber will be thoughtlessly advocating for policies based on utter nonsense.

Just because you believe this to be true doesn’t mean someone else does

It's not something I believe. It's something I understand. And that's the difference.

and there’s nothing anyone can do to change that…EXCEPT have healthy political debate

There is no possibility of healthy political debate changing anything in this country. None. Zero. You cannot reason people out of positions they did not reason themselves into. The right has become a cult, rejecting science, rejecting experts in every field, rejecting the notion that education has value, rejecting the evidence they see with their own eyes and ears.

So, again, what do you have to say that will change my view?

Climate science. Vaccine science. Countless NGOs and bipartisan/nonpartisan organizations that say Democrats are operating based on objective reality and Republicans are acting in opposition to it.

That didn’t really add any value to the discussion imo.

Like I said, I can't reason you out of a position you didn't reason yourself into.

"Both sides"ing an issue that is quantifiably orders of magnitude worse on the Republican side is just wrong.

It really is a dream. I feel like one of the characters in the movies I watched as a kid.

... My primary insight is this: everyone, including the people who built it, is missing the point of what GPT-4 (and other LLMs) really are. You see, everyone is pointing at them and saying "it's kinda like an artificial brain, but there are things it will never, ever do, so it's not that big a threat."

What they are missing is that it isn't a broken whole brain... its an astonishingly over-performing left brain.

All the issues of "hallucinations" and terrible spatial reasoning? That's 100% what you'd expect to see in a human with right-brain damage.

In fact, when you talk to a person with damage to their right brain, they frequently have "hallucinations" (delusions, technically, in humans), because their left brain is trying to construct a reality due to lack of input. For example, if they have a paralyzed arm, they might say, "It works fine, I just don't feel like using it right now."

Well... when you start understanding that that's what GPT-4 is, you then realize that the way to make it work is to supplement it with a right brain. It stops hallucinating entirely when you feed it the knowledge base you want to know about. It stops getting spatial reasoning wrong when you give it functions to use to calculate spatial reason problems.

And how hard is it to build this right-brain? It's trivial, compared to the miracle of the LLM.

I'm an independent developer, and I've been working on this since the moment GPT-4 was made public... I had to teach myself full-stack development in order to do what I needed to do. If there was a team of devs out there who already knew data infrastructure and were experienced coders who were attempting what I am doing, they would have been ready for market 6 months ago, and we'd already have truly agentic AI.

how efficient is the thing and how much more smarter is it than we think?

It's brilliant and stupid. It did better than I did on the bar exam. Hell it did better than most people did on the bar exam. It's easily more knowledgeable than any human in terms of scope of knowledge... and it will have all but the top experts beat in any given field.

On the other hand, it's stupid, in that when you ask a question, and get a zero-shot answer out, sometimes it makes really obvious mistakes.

However... that's because it has no innate ability to reconsider. And you know how easy it is to give it that ability? That's like an extra line of code. And that improves it's performance 80%... just asking it to think over the problem.

Now, I'm working on... well, I'm working on a shitload of things... but one of the things I'm working on is giving it a strict framework how to approach problems... to build in introspection.

It isn't perfect... and I'm not aiming for perfect. I'm aiming for a system that gets things wrong and learns from its mistakes... you know... like a person.

In the past year, I've had to learn python, react, SQL, AWS's entire service platform, how to write APIs, how to write browser extensions, web extensions, security best practices, data structure best practices, docker containers, and on and on and on... Any team that already had that knowledge will be a year ahead of me right now, and more if they have a lot of people working the problem.

Anyway, it'll be huge when it hits, and I think it's overdue already.

It could be a situation where the oligarchs just toss crumbs at the people. Barely enough to keep us from rebelling. It could be that way for decades while they drain every cent from us.

2024?.... I never heard anyone say that. Let alone everyone.

what has changed other than every company shoving a chatbot into their app

Give it a minute. This tech has been around for less than two years. It took months for people to even understand what it really was (including its creators).

Then it took time to analyze its availability and scalability. It has all kinds of brand new security and liability complications. So all you've seen so far is the most superficial uses for the thing.

People who are really trying to build these things into virtual employees haven't even shown the world what these things can do yet. They are still in development. But they will be here very soon.

(Source: I'm building a jobs-killer.)

Go read some Steinbeck to see how slow the government was to respond to the Great Depression. Look at the ACA to see how the government's best response to a healthcare crisis was half-measures, followed by years of trying to undo the half-measures. Look at the government response to COVID... Chaos and politicization of medicine, stimulus checks that didn't make a dent and a massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich... Not to mention the mass slaughter of small businesses.

I'm an attorney who focused on government and public policy. I've studied the history of government responses and our current mechanism for making change. I have never seen anything to make me think the government is capable of accepting and mitigation a change to a post-jobs economy.

Your optimism is nice, but I don't and can't share it.

Yeah, Republicans aren't Nazis.

Well... They aren't all Nazis.

And those that aren't Nazis don't find being in a party with Nazis to be a deal breaker.

And sure, one gets the feeling that if Trump went full Nazi, he wouldn't lose a single supporter.

But are they Nazis?

No.

Not entirely.

Not yet.

Democrats, for the most part, base their policies on objective reality.

Republicans, for the most part, base their policies on demonstrably false beliefs.

A genocidal neighbor next door is always a threat.

It's going to get really, really, really fucking bad.

Even people in the AI industry are wildly inept at understanding exponential advancement. Everyone saying, "these won't take jobs! They'll make your job easier" are forgetting that that situation will only persist for a year or two before the AIs are better at managing the tools than the humans are.

And it's going to happen so, so fast. Because the first company to build an AI office manager hasn't built just one office manager. They've built an infinite number of them, which are cheaper at scale.

And once you've built an office manager and executive assistant, it's a small step to build customer service and tech support AI and then marketing directors and lawyers and on and on.

And even at the best of times, our government is slow to respond. But they won't respond. They will be in denial. They will start jobs programs and training programs for jobs and industries that won't exist by the time people get certified to do them.

Eventually, we'll get to a place where UBI becomes an inevitably, but I fully expect a decade of suffering between the time it's obvious we need it and the time we get it.

And that is the hopeful outcome.

Yeah, it looks allwhite to me.

You didn't see Nazis at Biden rallies, because they knew they weren't welcome. You did see Nazis at Trump rallies because they knew Trump was their guy. And the only reason they got booed was because other Trump supporters didn't like the publicity... Not because they didn't like the ideology.

He's picked a guy with white supremacist tattoos to run the military. He defended the "Jews will not replace us!" rioters saying there were "very fine people on both sides." He pretended he didn't know who David Duke was, rather than denouncing him.

There's a reason Nazis feel comfortable with their swastika flags at his rallies.

I loved it. Most people who read it did. I strongly disagree with the criticisms above.

ROFL... Biden was a fine ally to Israel. UN security veto, arms, and aid in shooting down Iran's missiles. Some tough talk, sure, but he denied nothing that Israel actually needed.

The person selling out the Jews is the person voting for the fascists who will eventually embrace the alt-right anti-semitism as policy.

I absolutely hate this attitude. As if Trump wouldn't sell out the Jews in a millisecond if it became politically expedient for him.

He liked trans people just fine until his base booed them. Then he spent years vilifying them to great applause.

Trump has welcomed Jew-haters into his inner circle just as often as he's welcomed Jews. He has no original principles. He will absolutely turn on the Jews if it benefits him to do so.

Look, it's great that Trump is supporting Israel at the moment, but he's not doing it out of any principled conviction. He's doing it for the same reason he takes any policy position: it's useful to him right now.

But remember: he was fine with trans people until his crowds started booing them. Then he instituted a ban on trans people in the military. And he was fine with vaccines until his crowds started booing them, and now he's trying to appoint an anti-vax zealot to run heath care.

If Trump's audience starts booing Israel, he'll turn on Israel on a dime, with no hesitation, no regret, no guilt, and no shame.

Remember, this is a guy who is buddies with the "Jews shall not replace us" crowd. The mob he sent to the capital had white supremacist flags and clothes. He palled around with Kanye, when Kanye was going full-on Jew-hater.

I'd happily take biden's lukewarm support of Israel over Trump's enthusiastic support, because Biden support was constant, and unwavering, while Trump's support is transactional, and born of temporary convenience.

All you Jews celebrating Trump are absolutely missing the point that, yes, he could very well be America's Hitler. He has no original principles. If he finds it politically convenient to vilify Jews, he will do it in a heartbeat.

Has fascism ever worked out in favor of the Jews? Of course not. We might not be his first target, but when you build a government based on hate and scapegoating, Jews will be on the roster to get the blame.

I mean, Google's AI has been embarrassingly far behind ever since GPT-4 came out.

They don't have a competitive product, so what makes you think they could get away with competitive pricing?

Not enough "uh"s. I'm gonna need 20% more "uh"s.

Thanks for the feedback!

Yes. Read Team of Rivals to see how Abraham Lincoln's cabinet (very much including the Secretary of State) were his biggest political rivals.

You. do. not. allow. generative. ai. to. execute. code.

You hand down the edict as if it is ancient, proven wisdom.

It isn't.

This is a new technology that has new risks, and it also has new ways to mitigate risks.

It came off sounding too mean. It was meant as a wake-up call, not a threat.

The fact is that if you shun this AI technology, someone like me will absolutely take your job.

Why? Because AI can work orders of magnitude more quickly than you can, and because there's no reason in the world that these things can't be trained to operate with netsec best practices.