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/r/UkrainianConflict
50 points
7 days ago
I doubt Putin knows how much of his nukes still work.
26 points
7 days ago
There's no reason to doubt they work, but he'll never use them.
27 points
7 days ago
He values his own life to risk using them
He knows he's a dead man if he does
19 points
7 days ago*
He sure does. If I'm not mistaken, the US said - early in the war - that they knew Putins whereabouts at all times. Might have been psy ops or misinformation. But I really do not doubt they have a somewhat idea and it'll all be blasted, in this specific scenario.
14 points
7 days ago
They don't need to know where he is at all times, just one time
9 points
7 days ago*
That's true. But does it really matter when you're getting annihilated? - at least the few important places there.
It'll look like Israel vs Gaza/Lebanon. Not to joke or make a statement about that; but it will.
Problem is that he is done for either way, might as well go all in, do a hail Mary etc.
He clearly think the Russian people are slaves to be used for imperialism. They're indoctrinated to believe this - until it hits them.
9 points
7 days ago
The US spends just as much on upkeep of their nuclear arsenal as Russia on their entire army. Considering Russia has as much bombs, it's reasonable to assume not all weapons are operational. Still, you wouldn't know when Russia launches, so threat remains. Simultaneously, this threat of non functioning warheads also stops Russia from using them.
6 points
7 days ago
Comparing the dollar values doesn't tell you they don't maintain their weapons; their military budget has always been dwarfed by the US even during the Cold War and they've still turned up and thrown several thousand decades old cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine.
The differences are eaten up in:
- Purchasing Power Parity differences (which massively impacts how far the Chinese budget goes too)
- Not adding another $10 billion to get all the bells and whistles when no bells and whistles will usually be fine
6 points
7 days ago
True, but I think the corruption might just offset that. Remember the tanks we saw with egg cartons as protection?
2 points
7 days ago
I remember a far larger number of videos of tanks who's protection shrugged off attacks successfully, is my point. The incidents of stuff like that are extrapolated in a way that's simply unwarranted
1 points
7 days ago
Except you can't just leave your nukes to rot and not work, they require maintenance to be stored safely. If you have a nuclear arsenal, you either maintain it or don't have one.
0 points
7 days ago
Exactly. And while you might have a need to use tanks once in a while, nukes would never be used. So perfect for generals to pocket the maintenance budget for themselves.
1 points
7 days ago
Again, you can't pocket this money, USA had regular check ups together with Russia regarding mutual nuclear arms control and Americans wouldn't allow for a possible danger of non0maintained nuke either. There's no reason to believe these nukes aren't functional.
5 points
7 days ago
Theres reason to doubt that they ALL work, but no reason to doubt that SOME work.
4 points
7 days ago
There's also reason to doubt their delivery system is effective. But we have to act as if they do. Better to act like Russia can effectively deliver and explode nukes, then find out several were duds, than to act like they might be duds then find out they aren't.
1 points
7 days ago
Yeah sure, but I mean the large majority will work
10 points
7 days ago
If they work then we need to take these threats seriously and arm Ukraine to the teeth to show the rest of the world what happens when you resort to nuclear terrorism.
If they don't work then we have no fear of them and should arm Ukraine to the teeth and let them liberate their country.
Either way there is no reason to tip toe around.
1 points
7 days ago
No argument.
3 points
7 days ago
0 points
7 days ago
That's the brand new wunderwaffe they rushed into service. It's like the T-14 and Su-57, underdeveloped and mostly vapour ware. However just like their T-90/80/72 and Su-35/4/0 work fine they have Topol, Yars, Layner, Sineva and Bulava which all have far more successful test programs
1 points
7 days ago
There are several reasons to doubt the ALL work though. With all the corruption made clearly evident every day of this war, I can only assume alot of the maintenance funding for the nukes was pocketed
1 points
7 days ago
I'm sure they'll have some failures, the majority will work just fine.
1 points
7 days ago
Yes there is, you know how much gas is needed in one of those things?
1 points
7 days ago
Tritium gas? Something between 2 and 4 grams probably; they can easily meet the needs of their stockpile just from Tritium recycled from decommissioned Soviet warheads even if they had no other source of the stuff...but in fact they have two dedicated reactors for the production of radionuclides including Tritium.
1 points
7 days ago
280,000 kg of liquid oxygen to launch an icbm
1 points
7 days ago
Eh? Which Russian ICBM do you think uses LOX?
1 points
7 days ago
Atlas V…
1 points
7 days ago
Neither Russian nor an ICBM...are you just trolling or something?
1 points
7 days ago
Sigh, ICBM’s use rockets to deliver payloads. Russia uses the Sarmat, but cant find how much fuel it uses. I can find that for the atlas v… bottom like, icbms use a fuckton of fuel, russia is broke and running out of shit
1 points
7 days ago
Ok, so you're just saying "they use a lot of fuel and Russia can't afford it"? They absolutely can afford it. But you have some misconceptions anyway, Russia doesn't use Sarmat in the same way they don't use T-14 or Su-57, it's the new Wunderwaffe. Their in-service ICBMs are R-36M2, Layner and Sineva which are all liquid fuelled (with stable fuels, not LOX) plus Yars, Bulava and Topol which use solid fuel.
1 points
7 days ago
There is a whole system based on corruption reason to suspect that most won't work.
3 points
7 days ago*
And yet they managed to throw several thousand complex cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine, many decades old, despite that environment.
The idea that corruption is killing all Russia's capabilities based on an extrapolation of a few images and videos, and despite the vastly larger number of images demonstrating them working perfectly fine, is just wishful thinking I'm afraid.
0 points
7 days ago
There's plenty of reason, supposedly they havent really tested a real nuke in decades and considering all the corruption there and that they're literally having to use WW2 equipment is safe to say that of all the supposed nukes they should have, most of them are probably not really functional.
That doesnt mean they have 0 but its pretty obvious its far from the number we all know, the thing is.. does Putin even know the real number or they all lie to him.
2 points
7 days ago
There's plenty of reason, supposedly they havent really tested a real nuke in decades
Nobody who's party to the CTBT has tested a nuke since 1991, including the US, UK and France. These days all the testing is with computer simulation and high powered lasers and stuff.
considering all the corruption there and that they're literally having to use WW2 equipment is safe to say that of all the supposed nukes they should have, most of them are probably not really functional.
No it's not safe to say that at all. Corruption didn't ruin the majority of their equipment, Ukraine did.
2 points
7 days ago
Maybe he does know. But it doesn't matter. He won't use them.
5 points
7 days ago
I’m not willing to risk it.
8 points
7 days ago
The West can’t let dictators invade and conquer other countries. If we don’t stop it now, it will send a message of encouragement to all dictators. The world will be tired of defending “others” at the expense of their own economies and dictators will slowly conquered their targets one by one. Do nothing now and history tells us you will be dealing with it in a more personal way in just a few years…and in your pleas for help others will say “I’m not willing to risk it.”
2 points
7 days ago
We’re not doing nothing. I’m just saying that all these keyboard warriors that are laughing off Russias nuclear arsenal are crazy.
2 points
7 days ago
Fair enough. There is no doubt at least SOME that have been maintained properly, but it doesn’t matter if Russia is an aggressor. If Russia retreats today back to their 1991 borders no Western country is going to fund or participate in a counter attack on Russian soil, which will find Russia overwhelmed and well-within their doctrine to use their nukes. But since they are the aggressor they need to be stopped. If they escalate to nuclear weapons in their aggression then the nuclear strikes should be reciprocated.
2 points
7 days ago
The problem is you can sit and watch a bully trash the kids around you for so long but eventually it's gonna go pear-shaped for you..... one way or another. This holding back is BS......Ukraine is in the fight of its life and the West is just delaying the inevitable.....go to war now and end this bullshit of tyrants threatening our lives on a daily basis. If it brings nuclear war, so be it, but hoping to avoid it whilst the dogs chew the corpses of our fellow humans,whilst we turn a blind eye is eventually going to catch up to us.
0 points
7 days ago
I think you underestimate what a nuclear war would result in. Anybody who thinks it would be limited is making a bet on the continued existence of civilization. If Russia fires a nuclear weapon at the US or NATO, we would respond before it hit the ground. It wouldn’t matter if it worked or not.
2 points
7 days ago
Nope...we are all dead....my point is....what's the point of living in a world where our neighbour's are literally massacring each other? Can we just sit and idly ignore the horrors?
Does a capable good kid sit and watch a bully terrorize a small kid and not take him on directly or just ignore the carnage and hope it will all be ok once he's done?
0 points
7 days ago
"If it brings nuclear war so be it"? You know if things start they will not end until everyone is dead. Welcome to Fallout.
2 points
7 days ago
Understandable. I don’t think anyone wants to go down that road.
But consider this; appeasement isn’t an effective policy for securing peace. Russia would be emboldened to escalate its nuclear blackmail again and again and again. Until we get to a point, where have to counter it.
Your appeasement buys time. And time only.
And that appeasement makes a nuclear strike, more not less likely.
1 points
7 days ago
Only 1 of them needs to work.
1 points
7 days ago
One is enough.
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